Comparable Sales Analysis

Oak Grove Village

110-Acre Mixed-Use Development Site
I-24 & Highway 41-A (Fort Campbell Blvd) -- Oak Grove, Kentucky
Adjacent to Fort Campbell Gate 7
James Church
Keller Williams Commercial -- Keller Williams Land
Licensed TN & KY Commercial Broker
Data: CoStar Group -- Esri Business Analyst -- Christian County PVA | March 2026

Executive Summary

Recent comparable sales data for commercial land and improved properties along the Fort Campbell Boulevard corridor in Oak Grove and Hopkinsville, Kentucky. All data sourced from CoStar Group (exported March 2026) and Esri Business Analyst, covering transactions from April 2024 through February 2026.

$7.1M
Oak Grove Pad High
$4.3M
Corridor Retail / AC
$445K
Large Acreage / AC
$18-24M
Est. Total Value
The Oak Grove Village site benefits from existing TIF legislation (HB 310), approved mixed-use entitlements (OGR10-4-1, 2 & 3), and proximity to the $200M Oak Grove Racing & Gaming facility developed by Churchill Downs and Keeneland.

Oak Grove Comparable Sales

Transactions within Oak Grove city limits, ranked by price per acre. These represent the most directly comparable data for the subject property.

Address Type Acres Sale Price $/Acre $/SF Status Date
15108 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Restaurant 0.24 $1,700,000 $7.11M $163.29 Under Contract Pending
175 State Line Rd Office 0.96 $800,000 $834K $19.14 Sold Oct 2024
15372 Fort Campbell Blvd Land / Commercial 0.55 $449,900 $818K $18.78 Under Contract Pending
15706 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Storefront 0.86 $550,000 $640K $14.68 Sold Jun 2024
KY Hwy 911 & Thompsonville Land / Commercial 1.74 $775,000 $445K $10.22 Under Contract Pending
107 Waterford Dr Office / Residential 0.66 $250,000 $379K $8.70 Sold Jan 2026
200 J W Dickson Dr Retail (Portfolio) 10.68 $3,500,000 $328K $7.52 Sold Apr 2025
14629 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail 3.00 $900,000 $300K $6.89 Sold May 2025
15372 Fort Campbell Blvd ($449,900 / 0.55 AC) is the James Church listing, currently under contract at $818,000/AC -- establishing a strong baseline for pad-site values in Oak Grove.

Key Takeaways

  • Pad sites under 1 AC: $640K - $7.1M per acre, with the 15108 FCB restaurant pad representing the high watermark at $7.1M/AC (under contract).
  • Mid-size retail (1-3 AC): $300K - $445K per acre, with KY Hwy 911 under contract at $445K/AC for a mixed-use commercial site.
  • Larger improved parcels (3+ AC): $300K - $328K per acre, reflecting JW Dickson Dr ($328K/AC for 10.68 AC) and 14629 FCB ($300K/AC for 3.0 AC).

Claire Ave & Tuckaway Lane — PVA Verified

Closed transactions on Claire Avenue and Tuckaway Lane in Oak Grove, verified through Christian County PVA (Beacon / qPublic.net). These parcels are directly adjacent to the Oak Grove Village project footprint and represent the strongest corridor-specific comparables.

Address Tenant / Use Acres Sale Price $/Acre $/SF Buyer Date
150 Tuckaway Ln Starbucks (NNN) 1.15 $2,803,529 $2.44M $56.21 Agree Limited Partnership
Royal Oak, MI 48073
Dec 2025
211 Claire Ave (Lot 4) Freddy's Steakburgers 0.78 $1,937,300 $2.48M $56.69 Flawless Realty LLC
Roslyn, NY 11576
Dec 2020
213 Claire Ave (Lot 5) Taco Bell 0.71 $1,290,000 $1.82M $41.70 Mosier Mark & William
Goshen, KY 40026
Jun 2023
Claire Ave, Lot 6 Hotel Site (Vacant Land) 1.70 $497,000 $292K $6.71 Legacy Hospitality LLC & Dilip Shah
Clarksville, TN 37043
Aug 2024

Sale Chain — Starbucks (150 Tuckaway Ln)

Date Sale Price Buyer Seller Sale Type Value Created
Jul 2021 $100,000 Belew Edward E & Angela G Ladd Robert E Vacant Lot / Builders
Oct 2024 $750,000 L16 Development LLC Belew Edward E & Angela G Vacant Lot / Builders +650%
Dec 2025 $2,803,529 Agree Limited Partnership L16 Development LLC New Construction +274%

Claire Ave Key Takeaways

  • Improved NNN pads (Starbucks, Freddy's): Trade at $2.44M - $2.48M/acre, confirming institutional investor demand. Agree Realty (NYSE: ADC) and Flawless Realty (NY) are national NNN buyers — validates corridor quality for institutional capital.
  • Taco Bell (213 Claire Ave): $1.82M/acre (Jun 2023) — premium QSR land value on Claire Ave. Building: 2,208 SF, solid masonry, built 2022.
  • Hotel site (Lot 6 — vacant land): $292K/acre for 1.70 acres of unimproved commercial land. Buyer: Legacy Hospitality LLC / Dilip Shah (Clarksville, TN). Seller: RCL Trust (Partial Sale). PVA zoning shows "Residential" — rezoning for hotel use likely required. No utilities connected per PVA.
  • Starbucks value chain: Raw land went from $100K (2021) → $750K (2024) → $2.8M (2025 with building) — a 2,704% value creation in 4 years, demonstrating the corridor's development velocity.
  • Building data: Freddy's: 2,046 SF stucco/slab (2020). Taco Bell: 2,208 SF solid masonry/slab (2022). Starbucks: 2,648 SF (2025). All single-story QSR with drive-thru.
PVA Source: Christian County PVA — Beacon / qPublic.net (data uploaded 2/26/2026). Parcels: 145-00-00-011.00 (Starbucks), 145-00-00-014.15 (Freddy's), 145-00-00-014.16 (Taco Bell), 145-00-00-014.17 (Hotel). Deed Books: 834-372, 772-119, 803-634, 818-100.

Fort Campbell Blvd Corridor

The broader Fort Campbell Blvd corridor from Hopkinsville to Oak Grove demonstrates strong retail demand with consistent transactions at premium price points.

Address Type Acres Sale Price $/Acre $/SF Status Date
3000 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Fast Food 0.54 $2,338,710 $4.34M $99.67 Sold Dec 2025
2516 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Auto Repair 0.53 $1,400,000 $2.65M $60.90 Sold May 2025
2910 Fort Campbell Blvd Hospitality / Hotel 2.15 $3,280,000 $1.53M $35.02 Sold Sep 2024
4801 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Dept Store 2.01 $2,685,000 $1.34M $30.67 Sold Jan 2025
2103 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Freestanding 0.56 $625,000 $1.12M $25.79 Sold Feb 2026
4000-4050 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Storefront 3.01 $2,175,000 $723K $16.59 Sold Jan 2025
4000 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Movie Theatre 2.27 $1,017,500 $448K $10.29 Sold Nov 2025
2307 Fort Campbell Blvd Retail / Auto Repair 0.31 $150,000 $484K $11.11 Sold May 2024

Corridor Insights

  • The 3000 Fort Campbell Blvd fast-food pad sale at $4.34M/AC (Dec 2025) is the strongest recent corridor comp, confirming institutional buyer appetite for QSR-ready sites.
  • 2516 Fort Campbell Blvd traded at $2.65M/AC (May 2025) for a 0.53 AC improved auto repair site, demonstrating that even secondary retail uses command premium land values on the corridor.
  • Large-format retail centers (2-3 AC) trade between $448K - $723K per acre, supporting value estimates for the subject property's mid-tier commercial lots.

Market Demand Analysis

Esri Business Analyst data for a 15-minute drive radius around the subject site (encompassing the Buc-ee's / Oak Grove corridor) demonstrates robust and growing consumer demand.

Demographics

Metric 2025 2030 Growth
Population95,748102,747+7.3%
Households32,58135,290+8.3%
Median HHI$74,349$79,744+7.3%
Families23,87825,634+7.4%
Median Age27.628.4+2.9%

Consumer Spending

Category 2025 2030 Growth
Food Away$93.4M$109.4M+$16.0M
Entertainment$94.1M$110.3M+$16.2M
Apparel$60.5M$71.0M+$10.4M
Health Care$101.7M$119.3M+$17.6M
Vehicles$138.2M$162.0M+$23.8M

Market Demand Drivers

  • Up and Coming Families (45.3%) -- young families with growing incomes, prime targets for retail, dining, and family entertainment.
  • Military Proximity (11.8%) -- Fort Campbell economic engine with over 30,000 soldiers plus dependents generating stable, year-round demand.
  • Oak Grove Racing & Gaming -- $200M Churchill Downs / Keeneland investment has validated the corridor and is driving ancillary commercial demand.
  • Buc-ee's development (adjacent to subject site) will further anchor the I-24 interchange and draw regional traffic.

CoStar Submarket Analytics

Christian County retail submarket performance metrics provide context for stabilized property expectations.

Asking Rent (NNN)
$16.59 - $19.65/SF
Submarket Avg
Cap Rate
9.3% - 9.4%
Investor Yield
Vacancy Rate
4.2% - 4.6%
Tight Supply
Market Sale Price
$126 - $129/SF
Improved Properties
12-Month Rent Growth
+2.1%
Positive Trajectory
12-Month Absorption
Positive
Net Demand > Supply

Component Pricing Analysis

Recommended pricing framework for the 110-acre Oak Grove Village site based on the comparable sales presented above.

Component Est. AC $/AC Range Key Comps Est. Value Range
Prime Pad Sites (Lots 1-4) 5-7 $800K - $4.3M 15108 FCB ($7.1M UC), 3000 FCB ($4.3M), James listing ($818K UC) $3,500,000 - $7,000,000
Retail Frontage (Lots 5-10) 15-18 $300K - $640K 14629 FCB ($300K), 15706 FCB ($640K), JW Dickson ($328K) $5,400,000 - $11,500,000
Large Format / Anchor (Lots 11-14) 10-15 $275K - $450K KY 911 ($445K UC), 200 JW Dickson ($328K), corridor avg $2,750,000 - $6,750,000
Back Acreage Residential (Raw) ~46 $45K - $150K 16755 Dawson Springs ($46K raw), 115 Cayce ($60K) $2,300,000 - $6,900,000
ROW / Infrastructure ~5 N/A Included / dedicated Included
Total Estimated Value ~110 $14.0M - $32.2M
Estimated Value Range
$14M $18M - $24M $32M
Conservative Most Likely Aggressive

Pricing Notes

  • Conservative ($14M): Assumes bulk-sale discount, raw land values for back acreage, and lower range for all commercial lots.
  • Aggressive ($32M): Assumes pad-by-pad sell-off at market rates, infrastructure in place, and active TIF incentives.
  • Most likely range: $18M - $24M reflecting phased development with TIF reactivation and the school-site infrastructure strategy to unlock back acreage residential value.

Data Sources & Methodology

  • CoStar Group 65 commercial property transactions in Christian County, Kentucky (April 2024 -- February 2026). Includes closed sales, portfolio transactions, and properties currently under contract.
  • CoStar Analytics Submarket reports for Oak Grove / Christian County retail sector including vacancy, rent, cap rate, and absorption data.
  • Esri Business Analyst Retail Demand Outlook for 15-minute drive radius around Oak Grove / Buc-ee's corridor, including demographic projections, tapestry segmentation, and consumer spending forecasts (2025-2030).
  • Christian County PVA Parcel records, sale history, assessed values, and land data for Claire Ave and Tuckaway Lane properties via Beacon / qPublic.net. Parcels 145-00-00-011.00, 014.15, 014.16, 014.17. Last data upload: 2/26/2026.
  • OGV Report (2014) 1,101-page confidential package including TIF documentation (HB 310), engineering reports, environmental assessments, appraisals, and entitlements.
Selection Criteria: Comparable sales were filtered to prioritize (1) Oak Grove city-limits transactions, (2) Fort Campbell Blvd corridor properties, (3) land and retail property types, (4) transactions within the most recent 24-month window. Outliers (portfolio discounts, related-party transfers, special-purpose properties) were identified and noted where applicable.

This comparable sales analysis is prepared for informational purposes in support of a listing presentation and does not constitute a formal appraisal. Values expressed are opinion-based estimates derived from market data and should not be relied upon for lending, investment, or legal purposes. A licensed appraiser should be engaged for any formal valuation requirements. Data accuracy is dependent on the completeness and timeliness of CoStar, Esri, and public records.